Called Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM), the program is designed to generate models that - significantly more powerful than existing models - can help decision-makers develop adaptation strategies addressing climate change. These models will be developed through a joint, interagency solicitation for proposals.

EaSM is distinguished by its promise for generating:

  1. predictions of climate change and associated impacts at more localized scales and over shorter time periods than previously possible; and
  2. innovative interdisciplinary approaches to address the sources and impacts of climate change. These interdisciplinary approaches will draw on biologists, chemists, computer scientists, geoscientists, materials scientists, mathematicians, physicists, computer specialists and social scientists.


  • Climate-to-Humans: A Study of Urbanized Coastal Environments, their Economics and Vulnerability to Climate Change | PI Julio Bacmeister
  • Simulations of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Multi-scale Modeling Framework | PI Andrew Gettelman (end)
  • Decadal Predictability of Extreme Events: Impact of a Model Error Representation and Numerical Resolution | PI Judith Berner (end)
  • CRI-EaSM Multiscale Modeling of Aerosol Indirect Effects on Decadal Timescales | PI Sungsu Park
  • Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1 | PI Sungsu Park
  • An Informed Guide to Climate Data Sets with Relevance to Earth System Model Evaluation | PI Clara Deser
  • Ecosystem Impacts of Variability and Extreme Events in the Arctic | PI Marika Holland
  • MOBY: Modeling Ocean Variability and Biogeochemical Cycles | PI William Large
  • Improved regional and decadal predictions of the carbon cycle | PI Keith Lindsay
  • Topographic control of the Gulf Stream | PI Gokhan Danabasoglu
  • Assessing and Improving the Scale Dependence of Ecosystem Processes in Earth System Models | PI Gordon Bonan
  • Improved Cold Region Hydrology Process Representation as a Cornerstone of Arctic Biogeochemical Modeling | PI David Lawrence


  • NCAR Infrastructure Support for EaSM II | PI James Hurrell
  • EaSM 2: Quantifying and Conveying the Risk of Prolonged Drought in Coming Decades | PI Bette Otto-Bliesner
  • EaSM 2: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction, and Regional and Society Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability | PI Gokhan Danabasoglu
  • EaSM 2: Linking Human and Earth System Models to Assess Regional Impacts and Adaptation in Urban Systems and their Hinterlands | PI Brian O'Neill
  • EaSM 2: Advanced Climate and Regional Model Validation for Societal
    Applications | PI Lawrence Buja and William Gutowski


  • EaSM-3 The Role of Ocean Eddies in Decadal Prediction  | PI Alicia Karspeck
  • EaSM-3 Decadal prediction of sustainable agricultural and forest management – Earth system prediction differs from climate prediction | PI Gordon Bonan
  • EASM-3: Land Use Change and Land–Atmosphere Feedback Processes as Regulators of Regional Climate Change | PI David Lawrence
  • EaSM3 Quantifying Predictability Limits, Uncertainties, Mechanisms, and Regional Impacts of Pacific Decadal Climate Variability | PI Yuheng Tseng